The document then adds: "The expectation of being very close to closing a program could offset the negative effect of the above, but for this to happen, it is also necessary to put the political part in order a little".
Weeks ago, Grupo SBS executives had indicated in a webinar a view similar to that of their colleagues, in relation to the fact that it is likely that the multilateral organization led by Kristalina Georgieva will ask the Government not to use the sale of bonds for exchange purposes
At the moment the Government has been having a quiet December in exchange matters, with a gap that has been steadily closing. Proof of this is that the difference between the MEP and the wholesaler, which reached 109% on October 22, was 70% as of last Friday. The stock market dollar closed the week at $ 139.77, while the currency managed by the Central Bank did the same at $ 82.21.
The cash settlement (CCL) has also been collapsing, which starts this Monday at $ 142.35, after having reached a peak of $ 181.06 on October 22. Thus, the gap between CCL and wholesaler stands at 73%.
At the moment, the two financial currencies are still below the home banking dollar, which can be accessed by paying $ 144.95.
And the one who looks at everyone from above is the blue dollar, which hits the field this Monday at a value of $ 148, far from the value of $ 195 that it was able to display on October 23.
Some market agents believe that this moment of calm could be used by the Government to achieve a deepening in the improvement of exchange rate dynamics.
A report by the LCG consulting firm indicates: “There are alternatives to attack the exchange front, especially now that it is calm. The current rate of depreciation may accelerate (and, in part, in a very tepid way, this is what the BCRA has begun to do). There may be a discrete jump that, without having to bring it to the level of the free dollar, strongly reduces expectations of depreciation of the domestic currency. You can also try, with very fine surgery, to open the financial account, to offer some carry trade in exchange for the currencies that are looking for an exit ”.
Regarding the latter, although in November the appreciation of the official dollar against the peso accelerated, from Consultatio they indicated that the dynamics slowed down in these days. “It is striking how the rate of devaluation has decreased in recent weeks. It could have been used to, together with the drop in cash with liquidation, continue to lower the gap. It is too recent a dynamic, but it must be followed closely ", they expressed.
Beyond the aforementioned, the exchange rate is not only reflected on the side of prices, but also a calmer air is breathed in which refers to reservations. Last Friday the BCRA was a net buyer for around US $ 22 million, according to market estimates, and so far this month the sale and purchase balance has been positive for around US $ 50 million.
Meanwhile, international reserves stand at US $ 38,750 million. The anxiety, however, comes when the numbers are netted. According to estimates by the broker Invertir en Bolsa, as of November 30, the monetary authority's net holdings were US $ 4,205 million. And if this number is refined, eliminating the less liquid concepts (gold and Special Drawing Rights), it results in a negative around US $ 957 million.