To the aforementioned, it must be added that the BCRA had started the month of November as a buyer of reserves, but now its net sales for the month reach US $ 154 million. “We continue to warn that the drain could be greater: if we are guided by the level of the gap, the monthly loss should be closer to US $ 900 million. With net reserves of around US $ 4.4 billion, the intended bridge to March, when the bulk crop dollars would start to come in, is not yet assured, ”a Consultatio report pointed out.
On the other hand, they were critical of the consequences of the Central continuing to assist the Treasury via profits (something that was confirmed by Ámbito yesterday) and of the consequences in the exchange market: “Guzmán misses a valuable opportunity to validate the credibility that, in part, allowed him to lower the gap ”, they pointed out.
The economist of ACM, Juan Pablo Di Iorio, stated: “There are several factors that could help the Central to reverse the dynamics of loss of reserves: for example, that the demand for foreign exchange for tourism is strongly diminished this year , as well as other factors that could better translate the trade surplus to the foreign exchange market, such as the accumulation of import stocks that occurred in recent months or the private debt reduction in foreign currency ”.
However, Di Iorio warned: “But the fundamentals did not change: there continues to be a gap that discourages the supply of dollars. And the next few months are seasonally low when it comes to currency settlement. On the demand side there could be an increase, because there would be a strong issuance for December to finance the treasury. At the same time, the constant fall in net reserves and their low level generates a feedback effect and acceleration of the exchange rate run. ”
Regarding the gap within the gap, that is, the difference between the MEP and the CCL, some agents consider that the interventions of public agencies in the bond market have tended to iron the latter in relation to the former. The head of research at the Stock Market Training Institute, Leandro Ziccarelli, explained: “In recent days they have been buying bonds against currency pain, via cable dollars. Where do those dollars come from? Perhaps one part is put by the Central, perhaps another part by the Treasury, perhaps the ANSeS, that is not known. Who is interested in the cable dollar? The funds, who want to go. They are releasing the funds from the bond market, as they already received from the auction.
Zicarelli added: “You realize that it is the Government that is selling cable dollars because the operators do not have such great positions. Macroeconomically they are reserves. There is no plan to bridge that gap that was created by not removing the retentions from soybean. Without the soy dollars, you always end up selling. ”