ECLAC foresees a 4.9% recovery of the Argentine economy in 2021

According to the Preliminary Balance of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean 2020, the economy of Latin America and the Caribbean will contract 7.7% in 2020, with the largest drop in Venezuela (-30%) and the smallest in Paraguay (-1.6%) and Guatemala (-2.5%).

For Argentina, ECLAC expects a fall of 10.5% this year, while for neighboring countries it projects a decrease of 4.5% in Uruguay, 5.3% in Brazil and 6% in Chile.

Meanwhile, in 2021 the organization projected that there will be a rebound of the economies of Latin America and the Caribbean of 3.7%, with a growth for Argentina of 4.9%, the highest recovery for Peru at 9% and growths of 5% for Chile, 4% for Uruguay and 3.2% for Brazil.

In a press conference virtual, the executive secretary of the United Nations agency, Alicia Bárcena pointed out that "it is the worst global contraction in many years, the only exception is China, and this has great importance for our region. "

Bárcena argued that China's growth, added to the increase in international commodity prices ," in the case of Argentina is very relevant, China is the main destination for soy exports in Argentina. "

"China will grow 1.9% this year and the next 8.1% and there will be a recovery in prices and quantities of exports of agricultural products, in addition there will be a growth of the Argentine economy of 4.9%, this is an expectation which helps to improve both internal consumption and external aspects ", he affirmed.

Bárcena highlighted that" at a global level there was a very important response to the announcement of unprecedented fiscal packages ", and warned that all projections" are subject to great uncertainty, we do not know what will happen with the distribution and application of the vaccine, how global liquidity will continue, if fiscal measures will be sustained or not. "

At a global level, ECLAC indicated that the world economy will fall 4.4% in 2021 and a growth of 5.2% in 2021, and that world trade will register a fall of 9.2% in 2020, which is the deepest drop since the subprime crisis of 2009 when it fell 12.8%.

"The difference is that the recovery after the subprime crisis was 13.9% and now it will be just 7.2% in 2021 ", Bárcena pointed out.

The specialist clarified that" trade was affected by the pandemic but there is also a trade process that began before the pandemic, a global reorganization in which the dynamics of trade has changed. [19659005] Likewise, he observed that "China is the only country that is going to see growth in exports and imports."

He also stressed that "the region is receiving financial flows that would make it possible to cover deficits in current accounts and increase reserves but this is heterogeneous "and added:" Sovereign risk has decreased, the negotiations between Argentina and Ecuador have helped. "

On the other hand, ECLAC indicated that the falls in commodities were reversed and they are at higher pre-ndemic levels, except for energy products, which have managed to recover the most are metals and agricultural products and that in 2021 there will be better price behavior.

Bárcena argued that "in the third quarter the fall" of the economies "was attenuated due to the reopening of economic activities and enormous fiscal aid received by the families and companies. "

He stressed that" public spending has increased strongly prioritizing current transfers to households and the productive sector "and that" in all countries there is a very significant increase in the primary deficit ".

" In view From a second wave, we know that the vaccines are there, we have information and that our governments are making efforts to obtain these vaccines; it is necessary to think that these vaccines are going to require a lot of support, refrigeration and distribution systems ", he concluded.