In this framework and as advanced Ámbito the production losses would be around at least US $ 2.2 billion and this is confirmed by the analysts of the Rosario Stock Exchange. “Considering current FOB prices and maintaining the 2020 export shares of the different products of the soy complex, we estimate a low export potential of US $ 2,262 million. Crushing would lose 1.5 million tons compared to what was projected the previous month, to 37.5 million, while the export of beans would yield a similar volume to 5.5 million. The remaining million tons would be lost in production reserves, so that the level of inventories at the end of the cycle would fall by half a million tons with respect to the current season ”they explain.
Meanwhile, the good news. The news is associated with the solid prices shown by the oilseed in the international market, which for weeks, although with fluctuations, has remained above US $ 510 per ton, even reaching the maximum of US $ 530 per ton.
The most optimistic projections advance that if current values are maintained and if there is no drastic production cut as a result of the drought, foreign exchange income would have to be around US $ 26,000 / US $ 28,000 million . Levels continue to be records thanks to the escalation in the prices of agricultural commodities, which only in the case of soybeans recorded an increase of more than 40% in the last eight months.
Another fact to take into account in the midst of this difficult climate campaign, but with prices that are at seven-year highs, is that during the first months of this year, producers came out to take advantage of the robust international prices Contrary to what happened in previous campaigns, they sold an average of 500,000 tons of soybeans from last season that they still kept in their silos. This situation allowed, to a great extent, an exceptional inflow of dollars before the harvest that will begin between the end of March and the beginning of April and therefore a strengthening of the BCRA's currencies, which resulted in an exchange rate calm.
This This phenomenon would have found a ceiling and in the last weeks the producers began to retract last season's grain sales. According to the statistics of the Ministry of Agriculture, during the first week of March they sold 257,000 tons, compared to just over 500,000 the previous week. In turn, there are still 8.1 million tons to be sold that are still in the hands of the farmers.
Finally, with respect to the current season, some 11.11 million tons have been sold in advance, with a Production estimate around 44 million tons represents 25% of the total. A volume that is among the historical averages but that is very far from other oilseed producing countries such as Brazil, which at this point has already sold practically 100% of its harvest.