Why do deposits in pesos go up: do savers win or lose?

According to the latest official data, in the first fortnight of the month it is recorded that private deposits do not grow as months ago. In August only the fixed terms in non-adjustable pesos rose and this allowed the total stock to remain afloat. But total private deposits, which grew at 7% per month, grew by 2.4% in August and a modest 1.4% is projected in September. It is, therefore, the term placements that keep the fire alive. In August they grew 8.6% and in September a 6.4% is projected, according to the behavior of the first fortnight.

Thus, not only are they accompanying the monthly accrual but they are nourished by the monetary expansion of each month . This growth in real terms is explained by the lack of investment alternatives and above all by the empire of the stocks.

However, since May they have been growing in absolute terms at a slower rate, they went from $ 190,000 million monthly average to $ 130,000 million and now they will barely reach $ 85,000 million. Since the quarantine in March, the stock of private fixed terms in pesos has accumulated an increase of $ 656,000 million and so far this year of $ 912,000 million. It is worth noting that such an increase had its correlation in the holding of Leliq and Pases of the banks. While the stock of private loans barely grew by half a billion pesos. Thus, all that lending capacity provided by the stock of private fixed terms in pesos is parked in the BCRA in the form of remunerated debt.

For its part, as indicated before, the fixed terms adjustable for inflation They have been falling, despite higher inflation rates, and today they barely total $ 33.6 billion. On the Argendollar side, the opposite occurs, in the last two months they have grown again and in September they would chain the third in a row. Of course, this is linked to purchases of dollar savings and placements by importers. Although in the balance of the year they are registering a reduction of US $ 2 billion.